Dr Torvald Eikrem
biostatistician
Precise; clusters happen by chance
The Cluster
Residents believe the water is killing their children. Nadia investigates, learns the statistics of chance and risk, and must decide what to publish when the evidence is uncertain and the families are grieving.
Planned · not started yet
Science & evidence in everyday life Living with uncertainty Ethics & integrity City life Tense Reflective
The premise
Residents believe the water is killing their children. Nadia investigates, learns the statistics of chance and risk, and must decide what to publish when the evidence is uncertain and the families are grieving.
The protagonist
Nadia Okonjo-Mwakasege — Local reporter covering a feared cancer cluster
The council
Every council member is an original fictional character. None represents, quotes or is endorsed by a real person.
Dr Ama Pellegrini
environmental epidemiologist
Careful; measure exposure
Peter Hollis
science editor
Practical; report uncertainty honestly
How the story moves
An investigation that ends in an ambiguous result; Nadia’s story changes public trust either way.
What readers take away
- Chance and apparent clusters
- Measures of risk
- Exposure assessment
- How cluster investigations work
- Confounding and bias
- Reporting uncertainty honestly
- Communicating with affected communities
- When clusters are real
- Calculate expected cases from population data
- Understand standardised incidence ratios
- Evaluate expert statements
- Write a responsible headline
The books
- 1The claim Planned
- 2The data Planned
- 3The report Planned
- 4After Planned
Book titles are working titles and may change before publication. No book is on sale until the complete series is finished, checked and released.